Raise the Hurricane Flags?
May 16, 2011
By Karl Wickstrom
“It is not only persuasive, it's downright scary,” said an engineer/hydrologist friend. He was talking about a new scientific report that most folks know nothing about.
Some who do know about it wish they didn't. Others would rather you ignore it.
The unseen elephant in the room is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Let that roll off your tongue a few times. Better known as the AMO, you'll hear much about it down the line.
The engineer, Kevin Henderson of Stuart, doesn't scare all that easily. But he thinks we'd better pay attention. He cites recent studies by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which he says foresee the probability that many more intense hurricanes and major rain events will hit Florida, and probably made worse by global warming.
We all know by now how hurricanes can ruin our fishing, and lesser things like rooftops, buildings and electricity.
The prospect of many cyclones is not a thriller. But denial makes it even worse.
Regarding Everglades restoration, or what passes for it, the massive discharges to the east/west estuaries and the mishandling of Lake Okeechobee, the AMO is likely to make past abuses seem relatively mild compared to disasters which may loom in the near future. That dark prospect makes the need to send water south from the lake in a Plan Six type of storage flowway not only desirable but absolutely essential.
Explained Henderson:
“The AMO is caused by changes in sea surface temperature in the Atlantic Ocean, which are driven by periodic changes in deep ocean current patterns. These cooler/warmer oscillations in sea surface temperature are a natural cyclic event even documented as far back as 1,000 years. They vary in duration, averaging about 30 years between cycles, or phases.”
In 1995 the AMO changed to a warm (wet) phase. We may have another 15 or 20 years of it to come, notwithstanding a dry 2006.
Another scientist added, “The effects of the AMO warm phase are particularly extreme in Florida, where annual rainfall runoff is apparently more than double that of the cool phase. This affects stream flows, lake levels, and drainage. Water management plans and policies must be modified accordingly.”
It's an “increased hurricane intensity and probability” that alarms Henderson and many other experts.
Not everyone agrees with all AMO findings. Doubters include water management district officials and their Big Sugar cohorts. They mostly defend and cling to models (scenarios) based on outmoded dry-cycle data. But at least they're somewhat open now to receiving new information (about the elephant in the room).
Science-minded readers may want to read a paper by NOAA's Dave Enfield, titled “The Probabilistic Projection of Climate Risk,” at www.usclivar.org/Newsletter/Variations_V3N3/Enfield.pdf
We all need a good scare now and then. Especially when the stakes are so high.
P.S. That equation at the top is from Enfield's paper, but we knew all that...
